That said, activity accelerated meaningfully in 2024, with a rising number and share of AI-related loans. As capital becomes ...

Favor curve steepeners and gold as recent price action highlights rising term premia and diversification away from US assets. With markets closed on Monday for the MLK holiday, Tuesday’s session saw ...

Our annual "black swan" report is different this year. Usually we focus on low-probability, high-impact risks not under discussion in the global news media. This year we feel the need to address the ...

As Chinese consumer demand for goods slows, policymakers are increasingly focusing on bolstering service consumption. Beijing has committed to lifting the share of services in total household spending ...

Our clients know that we have been very generous when it comes to analyzing President Trump’s policy choices and negotiating style. In our view, ascribing preferences to the man is a poor analytical ...

Want to stay long stocks? Watch the 10-year yield. If we are not under 4% by the end of the year, stocks will suffer.

The latest parabolic move higher in silver prices creates a conundrum. On the one hand, we still view the macro and geopolitical outlooks as providing a supportive backdrop for silver prices in the ...

The precious metal bonanza has not resolved the South African economy’s plight. Nor did it improve its public debt sustainability issues. Investors should brace for a reversal in South African stocks, ...

President Trump is threatening to impose 10% tariffs on several European countries unless they negotiate a final deal for the US purchase of Greenland. The tariffs would supposedly rise to 25% on ...

Our exceptional 2025 speaker lineup featured some of the most influential voices in economics, finance and geopolitics. Our speakers unpacked the forces driving global markets - from shifting central ...

In this week’s report, we examine a number of historic capex booms, all of which turned into busts. We then proceed to draw some lessons for today’s AI capex boom.