Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...

Discover how the Dutch Book Theorem reveals profit opportunities in betting and finance when probabilities are misjudged.

Explore the binomial tree model's use in option pricing, its workings, and examples. Learn how this model estimates intrinsic ...

Humans respond to environments that change at many different speeds. A video game player, for example, reacts to on-screen ...

Poker hands probability quantifies the mathematical likelihood of receiving specific card combinations in Texas Hold’em and other variants. From royal flush odds of 0.0032% to one-pair frequencies ...

Implied probability is a concept that has a huge impact on how you judge the value of a bet. It’s something that you often hear about, but most bettors don’t stop to properly unpack this concept. In ...

The original radar cross section data or some rough models are often used to estimate a given aircraft target detection probability. The calculation results may not be very accurate as targets are ...