Reader estimates put the average probability of a 30% stock market crash in the next year at 30.5%, with a median of 25%. After engaging with the article's analysis, respondents lowered their average ...

Researchers have developed and validated predictive models to estimate the core pain-processing mechanisms using a limited set of easily accessible, routinely obtainable clinical measures. Researchers ...

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

Objective: To investigate how the presence or absence of psychological contracts and different formats of probabilistic data representation influence healthcare professionals’ pain empathy and ...

Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology September 2025, jnmt.125.270100; DOI: https://doi.org/10.2967/jnmt.125.270100 ...

Smarter people don’t just crunch numbers better—they actually see the future more clearly. Examining thousands of over-50s, Bath researchers found the brightest minds made life-expectancy forecasts ...

Summary: New research reveals that individuals with higher IQs are significantly better at predicting future outcomes, leading to smarter decision-making. Using data from the English Longitudinal ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Writes about the future of finance and technology, follow for more. Joint probability teaches us to calculate combined outcomes.

A two-stage approach combining masked SFT with diffu-GRPO—a novel policy gradient method based on GRPO that features efficient log probability estimation designed for masked dLLMs—to scale reasoning ...

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from 20%. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, talks with NPR's Michel Martin about the direction of the economy. For ...